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The models successfully predicted the climatic response after the eruption.
Models also correctly predicted other effects subsequently confirmed by observation, including greater warming in the Arctic and over land, greater warming at night, and stratospheric cooling.
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Trends are important because they eliminate - or "smooth out" - single events that may be extreme, but quite rare.If a model can correctly predict trends from a starting point somewhere in the past, we could expect it to predict with reasonable certainty what might happen in the future.